Major Events That Moved Markets
Three core events drove price action this week, with secondary catalysts providing both support and headwinds:
- SEC Delays Spot ETH ETF Applications: On October 21, the SEC announced it would extend its review window for all 7 pending spot Ethereum ETF applications (including filings from BlackRock, Fidelity, and ARK Invest) by 45 days, pushing its final decision deadline to mid-December 2024. The announcement triggered an immediate 5.8% drop in BTC and 7.1% drop in ETH in 90 minutes, pushing BTC to its weekly low of $63,862 as overleveraged long positions were liquidated. Notably, the selloff was shallower than many analysts expected, with dip-buying emerging immediately below the $64,000 support level.
- Fed FOMC Meeting and PCE Inflation Data: The Federal Reserve held interest rates steady at 5.25–5.5% at its October 30 meeting, with Chair Jerome Powell noting that “disinflation is proceeding steadily” while reiterating that rate cuts would be data-dependent. The announcement sent risk assets higher, and the rally accelerated on October 24 when core PCE inflation (the Fed’s preferred metric) came in at 2.4% year-over-year, 0.1 percentage points below consensus estimates. The data pushed market pricing for a March 2025 rate cut to 78%, up from 62% a week prior, reducing the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like BTC.
- MicroStrategy’s $500 Million BTC Purchase: On October 22, MicroStrategy announced it had purchased 7,788 BTC for $500 million at an average price of $64,200, bringing its total holdings to 214,400 BTC worth $14.3 billion. The announcement acted as a critical support catalyst, with retail and institutional investors following the firm’s lead to buy the Monday dip.
Secondary events included Binance’s £3.4 million settlement with the UK Financial Conduct Authority over anti-money laundering failures, which removed a long-standing regulatory overhang for the world’s largest exchange, and PayPal’s launch of USDC payouts for U.S. small businesses, a key step in integrating stablecoins into mainstream commerce.
Price Performance: BTC, ETH, and Altcoins
Bitcoin (BTC)
BTC ended the week up 2.28% WoW at $66,627, with a 6.55% trading range between $63,862 and $68,044. The week’s gains marked the third consecutive positive week for BTC, with the asset now trading just 2.1% below its all-time high of $68,091 hit in March 2024. Trading volume for BTC rose 12% WoW to $218 billion, with the highest volume recorded on Monday during the dip selloff and Friday during the rally to the weekly high.
Ethereum (ETH)
ETH outperformed BTC for the second consecutive week, rising 3.12% WoW to $2,382, despite the ETF delay. The outperformance was driven by rising staking demand and growing excitement ahead of next week’s Devcon 7 conference, where developers are expected to announce a firm launch date for the Dencun upgrade, which will reduce layer-2 transaction fees by 50–70%. ETH’s trading volume rose 17% WoW to $97 billion, with staking inflows hitting a 6-week high of 112,000 ETH this week.
Altcoins
Altcoin performance was mixed, with high-beta infrastructure and DeFi tokens outperforming, while memecoins lagged:
- ●Layer-1s: Solana (SOL) rose 8.7% WoW to $139, driven by a 20% monthly increase in active users and the successful migration of the Helium IoT network to its chain. Avalanche (AVAX) gained 5.3% after JP Morgan announced it would use Avalanche’s institutional chain for tokenized collateral trading.
- ●DeFi: Uniswap (UNI) surged 11.2% after the protocol announced its v4 upgrade would launch on mainnet on November 15, introducing dynamic fee tiers and improved capital efficiency for liquidity providers.
- ●Memecoins: Dogecoin (DOGE) fell 1.2% after Elon Musk failed to mention crypto integration for X during Tesla’s earnings call, while Pepe (PEPE) gained 4.1% following new listings on Coinbase International and Binance Japan.
The CoinDesk Market Cap (excluding BTC and ETH) rose 2.9% WoW, outperforming both BTC and ETH for the first time in three weeks, a sign that risk appetite is returning to the broader altcoin market.
Market Sentiment: From Panic Dip-Buying to Renewed Greed
Market sentiment shifted dramatically over the week, driven by headline events and price action:
- ●The Crypto Fear & Greed Index started the week at 72 (Greed), dropped to 58 (Neutral) on Monday after the ETF delay announcement, and recovered to 74 (Greed) by week’s end, as the shallow selloff reassured investors of underlying demand.
- ●Derivatives markets saw a sharp deleveraging event on Monday, with $212 million in BTC long positions and $68 million in ETH long positions liquidated in 24 hours, the highest daily long liquidation total since mid-September. Open interest across crypto derivatives fell from $38 billion to $32 billion following the liquidations, before recovering to $37 billion by week’s end, with funding rates turning positive (0.01% per 8 hours) after briefly turning negative on Monday, indicating that traders have returned to bullish positioning.
- ●Institutional sentiment remained resilient, with CoinShares reporting $246 million in inflows to crypto investment products this week, 78% of which went to BTC products and 12% to ETH products, marking the 12th consecutive week of institutional inflows.
- ●Retail sentiment tracked price action, with LunarCrush reporting an 18% drop in social media volume for crypto-related terms on Monday, followed by a 32% increase by Thursday as prices recovered.
On-Chain Insights: Supply Tightness Hits New Records
On-chain metrics this week reinforced the narrative of long-term supply tightness and strong hands holding through volatility:
- ●BTC Exchange Outflows: A total of 27,400 BTC left centralized exchanges this week, the highest weekly outflow total since August 2024, according to Glassnode. The outflow indicates that investors are moving BTC to self-custody for long-term holding, reducing the amount of liquid supply available for purchase on exchanges.
- ●Long-Term Holder Supply: BTC held by addresses that have not moved their coins in over 1 year hit an all-time high of 15.2 million BTC, representing 78% of the total circulating supply of 19.5 million BTC. The metric indicates that the vast majority of BTC holders are not selling into current price levels, reducing downside risk during market dips.
- ●Miner Behavior: Miners sold only 1,200 BTC this week, a 78% drop from the 5,450 BTC sold last week, as mining profitability rose 4% WoW to $0.19 per TH/s. Miners typically reduce selling when they expect prices to rise further, making the metric a bullish leading indicator.
- ●Stablecoin Supply: Total circulating stablecoin supply rose $1.2 billion WoW to $158 billion, the first weekly increase in three weeks. Rising stablecoin supply indicates that new capital is entering the market, with dry powder waiting to be deployed into BTC, ETH, and altcoins.
- ●ETH Staking Inflows: 112,000 ETH was staked this week, a 12% WoW increase, bringing total staked ETH to 31.7 million, or 26.8% of circulating supply. The rising staking ratio reduces the liquid supply of ETH, supporting price performance despite the ETF delay.
Week Ahead: Key Catalysts and Price Levels to Watch
The week starting October 28 will be one of the most high-impact weeks for crypto markets in Q4 2024, with three core catalysts set to drive price action:
- SEC Spot BTC ETF Deadline: November 2 is the SEC’s final deadline to approve or deny the Invesco Galaxy spot BTC ETF, the first of the 2024 ETF filings to reach its mandatory decision date. Analysts at Bloomberg Intelligence place the probability of approval at 85%, but a delay could trigger a short-term dip below $64,000.
- U.S. October Non-Farm Payrolls Data: The October jobs report, released November 1, will be a key input for the Fed’s rate decision in December. A stronger-than-expected jobs print (above 180,000 new jobs) could push back rate cut expectations, weighing on risk assets including crypto.
- Ethereum Devcon 7: The annual Ethereum developer conference kicks off November 1 in Seoul, with expected announcements around the Dencun upgrade launch date, layer-2 interoperability standards, and institutional adoption of Ethereum for tokenized assets. Positive announcements could push ETH above its 2024 high of $2,480.
Key price levels to watch:
- ●BTC: First support at $64,000 (this week’s low), second support at $62,200 (20-day moving average); first resistance at $68,044 (this week’s high), second resistance at $69,000 (psychological level above all-time high).
- ●ETH: First support at $2,280 (weekly moving average), second support at $2,150; first resistance at $2,480 (2024 high), second resistance at $2,600.
Risks to monitor include rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, which could push oil prices higher and reignite inflation fears, and rumors of a Department of Justice investigation into Binance’s U.S. operations, which could trigger short-term volatility. Upside catalysts include a potential announcement from Apple of crypto integration for Apple Pay, which has been widely rumored for a Q4 2024 launch.
Weekly Stats Recap
| Metric | Value | Week-Over-Week Change |
|--------|-------|------------------------|
| BTC Current Price | $66,627 | +2.28% |
| BTC Weekly High | $68,044 | +1.7% vs. prior week high |
| BTC Weekly Low | $63,862 | -0.3% vs. prior week low |
| BTC Weekly Trading Volume | $218 billion | +12% |
| ETH Current Price | $2,382 | +3.12% |
| ETH Weekly Trading Volume | $97 billion | +17% |
| Total Crypto Market Cap | $2.48 trillion | +2.7% |
| Total Derivatives Open Interest | $37 billion | -2.6% |
| Total Long Liquidations (BTC + ETH) | $280 million | +42% |
| BTC Exchange Outflows | 27,400 BTC | +68% |
| Long-Term BTC Holder Supply | 15.2 million BTC | +0.3% (new ATH) |
| Crypto Fear & Greed Index | 74 (Greed) | +2 points |
| Stablecoin Circulating Supply | $158 billion | +0.76% |
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