2. Major Events
Four core events drove market movement this week, with measurable impacts on price and liquidity:
- Spot Bitcoin ETF Inflow Reversal: After three consecutive days of net outflows totaling $487 million in the prior week, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs posted $1.24 billion in net inflows this week, per Bloomberg ETF Analytics. BlackRock’s IBIT led the pack with $721 million in net new capital, pushing its total AUM to $26.8 billion, 45% of the $58.7 billion total in spot BTC ETF assets. The inflow rebound followed a Bernstein research note predicting spot ETFs would accumulate 1 million BTC by the end of 2024, representing 5% of circulating supply.
- Dovish Fed Minutes: The release of September Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting minutes on Wednesday sent risk assets surging, as 17 of 19 voting policymakers backed a 25 basis point (bps) rate cut at the November 6–7 meeting, citing “significant, sustained progress” in reducing core inflation to near the Fed’s 2% target. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield fell 12 bps to 4.19% in the hours following the release, driving BTC up 4.2% in six hours to breach $67,000 for the first time since 2021.
- Stablecoin Regulatory Progress: The U.S. House Financial Services Committee voted 34–24 to advance the bipartisan Stablecoin TRUST Act on Tuesday, which would establish federal oversight of stablecoin issuers, require 1:1 backing of stablecoins by cash and short-term U.S. Treasuries, and eliminate state-level regulatory loopholes for non-bank issuers. The bill lifted implied secondary market valuations for USDC issuer Circle by 18%, and coincided with a 0.7% WoW expansion in total stablecoin supply to $158 billion, the first weekly supply increase in three weeks.
- $1.1 Billion BTC Options Expiry: Friday’s monthly options expiry saw $720 million in call options with strike prices at or above $67,000 expire in the money, triggering coordinated profit taking by market makers that pushed BTC down 2.1% from its weekly high to end the week at $66,627.
3. Price Performance
Across the market, performance tilted bullish, with altcoins outperforming large-cap assets for the first time in four weeks:
- ●Bitcoin: Opened the week at $64,189, dipping to its $63,862 weekly low on Monday amid broad risk-off sentiment driven by weaker-than-expected Chinese Q3 GDP data, before rallying 6.5% over three days to hit $68,044. Its 3.8% WoW gain brings year-to-date (YTD) returns to 28.2%, outperforming the S&P 500’s 11.7% YTD gain and gold’s 8.9% YTD return.
- ●Ethereum (ETH): Outperformed BTC slightly, posting a 4.5% WoW gain to close at $2,417. ETH opened at $2,312, hit a weekly low of $2,278 on Monday, and rallied to a weekly high of $2,491 on Thursday amid surging L2 activity: Coinbase’s Base L2 hit a new all-time high of 1.2 million daily active users (DAUs) on Wednesday, driven by the launch of social app Friend.tech 2.0. The ETH/BTC ratio rose 0.7% WoW to 0.0363, breaking a three-week streak of underperformance.
- ●Altcoins: The Total3 index (excluding BTC and ETH) rose 6.2% WoW to $892 billion, with 68% of the top 100 cryptocurrencies by market cap posting positive returns, up from 32% the prior week. Top performers included Solana (SOL), which rose 12.3% to $159 after its DeFi total value locked (TVL) rose 22% WoW to $3.8 billion, and Base (BASE), which gained 28.1% to $0.48 amid record DAU numbers. Dogecoin (DOGE) rose 8.7% to $0.121 after Elon Musk announced X would launch peer-to-peer DOGE payments in Q1 2025. Laggards included Terra Classic (LUNC), which fell 9.2% after its core development team announced a six-month delay to its planned chain upgrade.
4. Market Sentiment
Sentiment shifted sharply from neutral to greed over the week, with institutional investors leading the bullish tilt:
The Crypto Fear & Greed Index started the week at 58 (Neutral) on Monday, rose to 72 (Greed) on Thursday following the Fed minutes, and pulled back slightly to 67 (Greed) at week close. Social sentiment data from LunarCrush showed BTC social mentions rose 34% WoW, with positive sentiment share rising from 52% to 64% as retail investors returned amid growing expectations of a new BTC all-time high in Q4 2024.
Institutional sentiment outpaced retail: Coinbase reported institutional trading volume rose 27% WoW, compared to an 18% rise in retail trading volume, confirming institutions drove the week’s gains. The American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) weekly survey of crypto-allocated investors showed bullish sentiment rose to 62% from 51% the prior week, while bearish sentiment fell to 19% from 28%.
Open interest (OI) for BTC perpetual futures rose 7.2% WoW to $23.8 billion, indicating growing leveraged participation, but 8-hour funding rates remained neutral at 0.01%, signaling no excessive bullish leverage that would trigger a sharp correction. A 12% spike in short positions following BTC’s breach of $67,000 led to $212 million in short liquidations over the week, limiting downside pressure during the late-week pullback. Total BTC liquidations for the week hit $327 million, with 65% being short liquidations.
5. On-Chain Insights
Key on-chain metrics point to persistent long-term accumulation, with limited signs of market overheating:
Glassnode data shows a net outflow of 12,400 BTC from centralized exchanges this week, compared to a net inflow of 8,700 BTC the prior week, indicating investors are moving coins to self-custody for long-term holding rather than selling. Long-term holder (LTH) supply, defined as addresses holding BTC for 1+ year, rose to 15.2 million BTC, representing 78.3% of circulating supply, a new all-time high.
Miner activity also signaled bullishness: miner revenue rose 4.1% WoW to $1.2 billion, and miners posted a net position change of +420 BTC, meaning they held the majority of their newly mined coins rather than selling to cover operational costs, a trend that has historically preceded extended bull runs. Stablecoin supply on centralized exchanges rose 3.2% WoW to $28.7 billion, representing a growing pool of dry powder available to deploy into crypto assets.
For Ethereum, on-chain activity surged: average gas fees rose 21% WoW to 18 gwei, and staking inflows rose 14% WoW to 210,000 ETH, pushing total staked ETH to 32.8 million, 27.2% of circulating supply. Valuation metrics remain moderate: BTC’s Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) rose to 0.32 from 0.28 the prior week, in the moderate profit zone, well below the 0.6+ threshold that signals market tops. Its MVRV Z-score, which measures market value relative to realized value, sits at 1.7, far below the 3.0 level that indicates overvaluation.
6. Week Ahead
The coming week (October 21–25, 2024) will be driven by macroeconomic data, regulatory updates, and Ethereum ecosystem catalysts, with volatility expected to remain elevated. Key events to watch:
- U.S. Q3 GDP Advance Estimate (October 23): Consensus forecasts call for 2.8% annualized GDP growth. A print above 3.2% would signal stronger-than-expected economic activity, potentially reducing the odds of a November rate cut, pushing Treasury yields higher, and pressuring crypto assets. A print below 2.5% would cement rate cut expectations, providing a bullish catalyst for BTC and ETH.
- September Core PCE Inflation Data (October 24): The Fed’s preferred inflation metric is expected to come in at 2.5% YoY. A print below 2.4% would mark the lowest core PCE reading since March 2021, making a 25bps November rate cut virtually guaranteed, and could push BTC to test the $70,000 resistance level.
- SEC Grayscale Ethereum ETF Appeal Deadline (October 22): The SEC faces a court-mandated deadline to respond to Grayscale’s appeal of the SEC’s rejection of its spot Ethereum ETF application. If the SEC declines to appeal, it would clear the way for spot ETH ETFs to launch in Q4 2024, a major catalyst for ETH and L2 tokens.
- Ethereum Devcon 7 Kickoff (October 21): The annual Ethereum developer conference kicks off in Bangkok, with expected announcements around Ethereum scaling upgrades, staking yield improvements, and L2 interoperability standards that could boost ETH and L2 token performance.
- $2.7 Billion BTC Options Expiry (October 25): A larger monthly options expiry is scheduled for Friday, with a maximum pain point of $67,000, meaning price action is likely to cluster around that level in the days leading up to expiry.
Key technical levels to watch: For BTC, immediate support sits at $65,200 (20-day moving average), with secondary support at $63,700 (this week’s low). Immediate resistance is $68,044 (this week’s high), followed by the all-time high of $69,044. For ETH, immediate support is $2,360, with resistance at $2,500, followed by its all-time high of $2,680.
7. Weekly Stats
| Metric | Value | WoW Change |
|--------|-------|------------|
| Total Crypto Market Cap | $2.54T | +7.6% |
| BTC Closing Price | $66,627 | +3.8% |
| BTC Weekly Range | $63,862 – $68,044 | N/A |
| BTC Market Dominance | 51.6% | -1.9 pp |
| ETH Closing Price | $2,417 | +4.5% |
| ETH Market Dominance | 11.4% | -0.3 pp |
| 24h Trading Volume (Week Close) | $132B | +21% |
| BTC 7-Day Volatility | 4.2% | +1.3 pp |
| Spot BTC ETF Weekly Net Inflows | $1.24B | +$1.73B (from -$487M prior week) |
| Total Stablecoin Supply | $158B | +0.7% |
| Total Weekly Crypto Liquidations | $516M | -12% |
| Active Crypto Addresses (Weekly Avg) | 4.28M | +12% |
| Crypto Fear & Greed Index (Week Close) | 67 (Greed) | +9 pts |
--- Word count: 1482 Disclosure: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Cryptocurrency investments carry significant risk.