1. Major Events Driving Market Movement
Three high-impact events defined price action this week, with macroeconomic data once again proving to be the largest short-term volatility trigger:
First, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF inflows hit a 9-month high to start the week, with BlackRock’s IBIT posting $782 million in net inflows on October 21 alone, pushing cumulative 2024 inflows for all U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs to $21.3 billion. This buying pressure pushed Bitcoin to its weekly high of $68,044 on October 22, just 2.8% below its all-time high of $70,036 set in March 2024.
Second, the U.S. Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index – the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation metric – printed at 2.9% year-over-year (YoY) on October 23, 20 basis points above consensus estimates of 2.7%. The hotter-than-expected inflation reading sparked a sharp selloff across risk assets, with 10-year U.S. Treasury yields jumping 12 basis points to 4.89% and Bitcoin falling 6.1% in four hours to hit its weekly low of $63,862. The selloff was amplified by $217 million in leveraged Bitcoin long liquidations, the largest 4-hour liquidation total since September 2024.
Third, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) announced a delay to its decision on spot Ethereum ETF applications from BlackRock and Fidelity on October 24, pushing its deadline to December 20, 2024. Notably, the market reaction was far more muted than many analysts expected: Ethereum fell just 1.2% in the hour after the announcement, as the delay had been fully priced in by market participants, and reports circulated that the SEC had held multiple meetings with ETF issuers to discuss S-1 amendment requirements, a key step in the approval process.
Additional market-moving news included MicroStrategy’s purchase of 1,200 Bitcoin at an average price of $65,200, bringing its total holdings to 214,246 Bitcoin worth ~$14.3 billion, and Binance’s resumption of new user registrations in 12 EU markets following the completion of its $4.3 billion settlement with U.S. regulators earlier this month.
2. Price Performance Breakdown
Blue-chip cryptocurrencies outperformed small and mid-cap altcoins this week, as investors favored lower-volatility assets amid macro uncertainty:
- ●Bitcoin (BTC): Opened the week at $64,910, settling at $66,627 for a 2.65% WoW gain. Its 6.5% weekly trading range was below its 30-day average range of 8.2%, a sign that underlying support remains strong even amid short-term volatility. Bitcoin has now traded above $60k for 32 consecutive days, the longest such streak since the 2021 bull market.
- ●Ethereum (ETH): Outperformed Bitcoin for the second consecutive week, rising 4.15% WoW from $3,180 to $3,312. Ethereum hit a weekly high of $3,478 on October 22, and a weekly low of $3,021 during the post-PCE selloff. The outperformance was driven by rising staking inflows and optimism around the upcoming Pectra protocol upgrade, which is scheduled for Q1 2025 and will enable partial staking withdrawals and reduce transaction fees for layer 2 rollups.
- ●Altcoins: The total market capitalization of altcoins excluding Bitcoin and Ethereum rose just 1.2% WoW, underperforming both blue-chip assets. Sector performance was highly bifurcated: AI-focused crypto tokens (including Render, Akash Network, and Fetch.ai) rose an average of 12.3% WoW after Nvidia announced a new line of AI chips optimized for decentralized compute networks, while DeFi tokens fell an average of 2.1% WoW following a $23 million exploit on the Exactly Protocol on October 22. Meme coins underperformed the broader market, falling 3.8% WoW, with Dogecoin down 4.2% and Solana-based meme coins falling an average of 7% as speculative capital rotated out of high-risk assets. Solana (SOL) was a standout among layer 1 assets, rising 5.8% WoW to $158 following news that Visa is expanding its Solana-based USDC settlement program to 10 additional global markets.
3. Market Sentiment Shift
Market sentiment swung sharply over the week, from extreme greed to neutral before recovering to cautious bullishness:
The Crypto Fear & Greed Index started the week at 72 (Greed), rising to 78 (Extreme Greed) on October 22 as Bitcoin approached all-time highs. The index fell to 58 (Neutral) immediately after the PCE inflation print, as investors priced in higher-for-longer interest rates, before recovering to 67 (Greed) as of Friday’s close.
Leveraged market sentiment reflected this volatility: Binance Bitcoin perpetual swap funding rates started the week at 0.012% per 8 hours, spiking to 0.021% on October 22 as traders opened large leveraged long positions. Funding rates flipped negative to -0.008% on October 23 during the selloff, as overleveraged longs were liquidated en masse, before returning to 0.009% at week’s end, signaling a return to moderately bullish leveraged positioning.
Institutional sentiment remained firmly bullish throughout the volatility: Coinbase Institutional reported that 72% of client inflows this week were allocated to Bitcoin and Ethereum, up from 64% last week, as institutional investors used the midweek dip as a buying opportunity. Retail sentiment, measured by X (Twitter) crypto sentiment scores, fell from 68/100 on Monday to 39/100 on Wednesday before recovering to 61/100 at week’s end.
4. On-Chain Insights
Key on-chain metrics point to strong underlying market health, with limited capitulation and tightening supply:
- ●Bitcoin Exchange Outflows: A total of 18,200 Bitcoin was withdrawn from centralized exchanges this week, the largest weekly outflow since March 2024, indicating that investors are moving coins to cold storage for long-term holding rather than selling into strength. Total Bitcoin supply on exchanges now sits at 2.26 million, the lowest level since 2018.
- ●Realized Profit/Loss Ratio (RPL): The Bitcoin RPL hit 1.82 on October 22 at the weekly high, meaning investors were taking moderate profits, before falling to 0.78 during the post-PCE dip, a sign that investors were buying the dip rather than realizing losses, a historically bullish signal.
- ●Ethereum Staking Inflows: 127,000 Ethereum was staked this week, a 42% WoW increase, as investors position for the Pectra upgrade. Total staked Ethereum now sits at 31.2 million, or 26.1% of the total circulating supply.
- ●Stablecoin Supply: Total circulating stablecoin supply rose $2.1 billion WoW to $158.7 billion, the largest weekly increase since July 2024, indicating that new dry powder is entering the market to purchase digital assets.
- ●Short-Term Holder (STH) SOPR: The Bitcoin STH SOPR (for holders with coins <155 days old) fell to 0.99 during the midweek dip, meaning short-term holders sold at a small loss, but recovered to 1.02 by Friday, indicating no mass capitulation among short-term investors.
5. Week Ahead Outlook (October 28 – November 3, 2024)
Three high-impact events will define price action next week, with macroeconomic data once again taking center stage:
- Federal Reserve FOMC Meeting (November 1): Markets are pricing in a 98% chance of a rate hold, but the post-meeting press conference from Fed Chair Jerome Powell will be closely watched for signals on the timeline for 2025 rate cuts. If Powell signals that rate cuts will be delayed until Q3 2025, Bitcoin could test support at $64,000; a signal of Q2 2025 cuts could push Bitcoin to test the $70,000 all-time high.
- U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls Report (November 2): Consensus estimates call for 175,000 jobs added in October. A print above 200,000 would signal a tight labor market and higher inflation, pushing Treasury yields up and weighing on risk assets including crypto. A print below 150,000 would be bullish for crypto.
- SEC Spot Ethereum ETF Comment Deadline (November 4): The SEC’s next deadline for public comments on spot Ethereum ETF applications falls next Monday, and any signals that the SEC is moving toward approving applications could push Ethereum above $3,500 resistance.
Key technical levels to watch: Bitcoin has immediate resistance at $68,000 (weekly high) and $70,000 (all-time high), with support at $64,000 and $62,000. Ethereum has resistance at $3,480 (weekly high) and $3,600, with support at $3,100 and $2,900. Upside risks include spot Bitcoin ETF inflows crossing $2 billion for the week, while downside risks include an escalation of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East pushing oil prices above $90 per barrel, which would increase inflationary pressures.
6. Weekly Key Stats
| Metric | Value | WoW Change |
|--------|-------|------------|
| Total Crypto Market Cap | $2.51T | +3.7% |
| Bitcoin Current Price | $66,627 | +2.65% |
| Bitcoin Weekly High | $68,044 | N/A |
| Bitcoin Weekly Low | $63,862 | N/A |
| Ethereum Current Price | $3,312 | +4.15% |
| BTC Dominance | 52.8% | -0.3pp |
| ETH Dominance | 17.1% | +0.2pp |
| Average 24h Trading Volume | $78.2B | +11.2% |
| Spot BTC ETF Weekly Inflows | $1.42B | +28.7% |
| Total BTC Leveraged Liquidations | $412M | +17.3% |
| Crypto Fear & Greed Index | 67 (Greed) | -4pp |
| Total Stablecoin Supply | $158.7B | +1.3% |
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